It is well known that economic downturns tend to increase electoral volatility—both by amplifying the punishment of incumbent parties and encouraging vote-switching, as well as by boosting support for new parties.
However, can models of democracy and institutional arrangements moderate this effect?
This is the question that Chiara Tura and Leonardo Serri explored while completing their group project for my Bachelor’s IPLE course in Comparative Political Systems.
Their answer is YES. While models of democracy do not directly affect electoral volatility, consensus-based institutions typically mitigate the impact of economic crises on electoral instability.
You can read their paper here.
