Policy-taking styles: a typology and an empirical application to anti-Covid policies

Several studies have investigated the variety of governance strategies adopted by European countries to cope with the Covid-19 pandemic. Some nations relied on a more liberal approach, based on recommendations and a lack of mandatory constraints; others trusted more top-down regulations and longlasting restrictions. The feasibility and success of the different strategies also depend on the way in which policy-takers react. 

The article uses this exemplary policy case to propose a novel theoretical framework which maps the variety of policy-taking styles applying March and Olsen’s (2006) logics of conditionality and appropriateness. Using mobility data, it then employs the new typology to explore the diverse styles adopted by policy-takers reacting to anti-Covid workplace regulations in 29 European countries. The categories proposed can be applied also in different contexts, especially where policy success crucially depends on countless individual behaviours, and policymakers need to choose the most effective mix of enforcement tools.

Marco Giuliani (2023): Policy-taking styles: a typology and an empirical application to anti-Covid policies, Journal of European Public Policy, DOI: 10.1080/13501763.2023.2188891

Complying with Anti-COVID Policies. Subnational Variations and their Correlates

Italy was the first European country to be hit by the COVID-19 pandemic, experimenting and fine-tuning its policies against the virus. In November 2020, the Italian government introduced a color-coding system, adapting its constraining measures to the local epidemiological situation. 

In this research note, I first use mobility data to check the effects of this policy, and then analyse their geographical variation for similar levels of constraint as a proxy for its local enforcement. Finally, I explore some ex-ante and ex-post correlates of greater or lesser adherence to the mobility constraints in regard to the further spread of the virus. Contrary to some stereotypes, the level of compliance with the new anti-COVID policy was reasonably high, and in any case sufficient to curb the pandemic.

Marco Giuliani (2022) Complying with Anti-COVID Policies. Subnational Variations and their Correlates. Rivista Italiana di Politiche Pubbliche, 2: 241-268, DOI: 10.1483/104976

 

COVID-19 counterfactual evidence. Estimating the effects of school closures

School closure

Scholars have started to estimate the effects of non-pharmaceutical interventions to reduce the health impact of COVID-19.
However, the empirical evidence is highly contested, and since it is not known exactly what would have happened without those measures, political élites are left free to give credit to the voices that they prefer the most.
We argue that any sensible assessment of the effectiveness of anti-COVID policies requires methodological reflection on what is actually comparable, and how to approximate the ideal “method of difference” theorized by John Stuart Mill.
By evaluating the effectiveness of school closures as an anti-COVID policy, we provide two examples in which appropriate counterfactuals are inductively discovered rather than selected a priori. In the first one, we use Coarsened Exact Matching (CEM) in a cross-country setting, while in the second one, we implement the Synthetic Control Method in a within-country analysis. The article highlights the methodological advantages of including these techniques in the toolbox of policy scholars, while both examples confirm the effectiveness of school closures.

Marco Giuliani (2023) COVID-19 counterfactual evidence. Estimating the effects of school closures, Policy Studies, 44(1): 112-131, DOI: 10.1080/01442872.2022.2103527